Sunday, February 11, 2007

Bearish Stock Watchlist

I am adding Novellus Systems (NVLS) to my watch list for a possible bearish trade. The stock has now made a lower high after bouncing off the 30d MA. I see resistance at $32 confirmed by the doji candlestick. There is support around 29.75-30 and at 26.50-27. I like the March 30 put @ .75 with a target of $3.00 (300% gain). My only concern is that the March expiration is just 5 weeks away. The June 30 puts @ 1.75 would return 200% at the target.

I am also looking at Superior Energy Services (SPN) for a bearish trade. The stock is flashing 3 bearish crossovers (Stochastics, MACD, and 30d MA) but is sitting squarely on a line of support. I will be watching for a break through support @ 29 with a target of $24. I like the March $30 put @ 1.40 with a target of $6.00 (330%). Again, I worry about the March expiration and would have to push out to June 30 put @ $2.35 with a return of 155%.

What do you think? Add your comments and lets discuss these trades and other possible strategies. Maybe a March 32.50/30 bear put spread on NVLS at $1.40 for 78% as long at NVLS drops below $30.

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